The 14th of April will be the two month anniversary of what was briefly called the 'Pearl Revolution' in Bahrain. I wrote my first post on Bahrain back in February and got quite a response. In that post I mused that the Bahraini government would be likely to succumb to the peoples' demands, so as not to lose the big tourism revenue the F1 race would bring. And I'm sure they intended to keep their reputation as one of the most progressive Arab nations. My musings were wrong, to say the least. I think we've reached a point where we can look back at what's happened and analyse, though, and I want to look at some of the recent developments.
I think it's important to add as a disclaimer that I'm in no way unbiased, and there's no point hiding it. Take what I say with a pinch of salt.
Enter the Saudis
Despite the difficulties and tragedies of the first month, it had overall been a great achievement. The people were pressing the government for reforms they wanted. Many had taken to camp at the Pearl Roundabout. Then, a misstep by some protesters. Road blocks came up, and they came up around the Financial Harbour at that.
Before the 14th of March, there was peace. There were some run-ins between protesters and security forces, but overall Bahrain was almost normal. Then, on Monday the 14th - 5 weeks ago - the Saudis entered through the bridge that connects Bahrain to the mainland. Somewhere in the range of 1000-2000 troops entered the country, with about 500 Emiratis in their midsts.
The disruption caused by the protesters at the Financial Harbour was used as a pretext to bring in the Saudis, but it really could have been anything. The monarchy wants to end this uprising as quickly as possible, after all. All the same, the GCC forces cracked down on the protesters and sent them fleeing. Then the government destroyed the Pearl Roundabout, something I blogged about here. Their destruction of the roundabout has two possible effects: it removes what has become a prominent revolutionary symbol, and it also pits more people against each other. The protesters will say that Bahrain is being ruined by its rulers with more conviction than before, and the supporters of the government will blame the protesters for bringing to ruin one of the most prominent Bahraini landmarks.
What does Saudi Arabia have to gain from this? A map is handy here:
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Might be you'll have to zoom out a bit, but you should see Bahrain and the Eastern Province on that map. Bahrain is situated just east of Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi-Bahraini bridge connects the island nation to the Eastern Province. That built up area directly west of Bahrain, Qatif, is predominantly Shi'ite, with somewhere in the midst of 3 million Shia living there. It is also one of the most oil-rich areas in Saudi Arabia. So here's the important bit:
The Saudi Shia sit on top of the oil, and their Bahraini cousins were in the midst of a seemingly successful uprising.
It explains why Saudi would enter the fray in Bahrain. The Saudi Shia - who as in Bahrain are generally treated as second class citizens - were having protests of their own, though it did not escalate. Here, I think, Saudi Arabia has not just entered Bahrain to protect its friendly monarch, but also to send a message to its own Shi'ite population: don't even think about it.
I am the one hiding under your bed / teeth ground sharp and eyes glowing red
One thing I've picked up while reading the news on Bahrain, is that Iran will almost always receive at least a passing mention. This has been most evident on Al-Jazeera, but that might be because Al-Jazeera's the news source I tend to rely on. The common ground between Iran and Bahrain is their Shi'ite majority. It's for that reason that the monarchy will tend to point their finger at Iran whenever there is unrest, and recently it seems like Iran has been made to be the scapegoat of every problem.
Now, no doubt Iran has an agenda. Currently they are the only Shi'ite country in the Islamic world, and they no doubt want some Shi'ite friends. Bahrain is their neighbour and has a history with Iran that extends through the millenia; they are the obvious Shi'ite ally. So doubtless Iran has been giving their support to the protesters who seek regime change.
But Iran is not the force behind the change. The only news worthy thing Iran has done in Bahrain of recent times is recall their ambassador in protest of the Bahraini government's violence, after Bahrain had withdrawn their own ambassador from Tehran. Iran can give support at a spiritual level, but they are far from the driving force here. The people are fighting for equal rights, for an end to torture and a proper democracy. Turning Bahrain into Little Iran is the last thing on anyone's mind - if it is on their mind at all.
But Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have pointed the finger at Iran time and again these last two months. They say that Iran is fuelling the unrest, and what this has ultimately done is put the protesters in a bad spot, because it puts the West in a difficult position. The US and EU cannot harshly condemn the Bahraini monarchy's actions or show support for the protesters easily without now coming across as supporters of Iran. The world-wide support that helped the Egyptians and Libyans cannot as easily be given to Bahrainis.
This Iranian bogeyman of Bahrain's is nothing more than a distraction. It gives the monarchy reason to ignore the more important matters at home while they make it out to be something completely different. And while the Iranian threat is taken to be a serious matter, it will continue hampering any progress. Which it seems is exactly what the monarchy wants.
'Free' Press
A week ago, the monarchy had the opposition newspaper, Al-Wasat, close for a day, allowing them to re-open the next day after the editor-in-chief, managing editor and head of local news resigned. You can read more about it on the New York Times.
My dad being that editor-in-chief, this affects me personally and I can't keep a clear head about this topic; for me, this is a bit difficult to write about without getting carried away. This whole fiasco deserves a blog post of its own, but I'll wait until I've got all the facts straight before I ever write anything in-depth about it.
So the monarchy closed the only newspaper that took the other side, and only reopened it when the agenda-setting men had been removed. A new editor-in-chief is in place: Obaydli al-Obaydli, a milder man more likely to keep in line with the monarchy's agenda, especially after the recent upheavals and attacks on the paper. Effectively, Al-Wasat has been neutered, and with that the effective power of a free press to report and debate is gone. Not that the Bahraini press was ever free, but it had some freedom. Now even that has been taken away.
Now, the protesters have no voice. Opposition members of the ineffectual parliament had already resigned before, and now the newspaper which reached the protesters has been fundamentally changed.
What Comes Next...
The protesters who proudly camped at the Pearl Roundabout stay at home, locked up and afraid. They have no voice at home, and abroad they are ignored. The monarchy has, at the moment, 'won' and it seems peace is returning to the streets of Bahrain.
Reuters has reported that Bahrain's crackdown may cost it stability in the long run. Mattar Al-Mattar, a prominent member of Al-Wefaq (the opposition political party) has said that "there are concerns people might turn toward the path of violence," and it seems to me that this is increasingly likely to happen.
Fearful people will increasingly turn towards religion, and Shia have ever been the type to dwell on defeat. People are losing their jobs and prospects seem grim. The moderates have failed. It might only be a matter of time before some hot-blooded, charismatic Sheikh giving a sermon opens the doors to extremism. Perhaps in a mosque some Friday from now, or else in a ma'tam where emotions run high and grown men weep on Ashura - the anniversary of Imam Hussain's martydom, the great tragedy of the Shia, which this year falls on December. Some desperate fools might do something desperate, and if they do, they would justify all the injustices of the regime against them.
It's getting to be quite grim, to say the least.
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